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Premier League betting: Back Brentford offsides at 5/2 vs Liverpool

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5:44 pm
January 2, 2023


hiperlink

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Posts: 389

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Watch Brighton vs Arsenal, Tottenham vs Aston Villa & Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea live on Sky Sports; Play Super 6 to win £250,000!

Jones Knows wants to invest in the revitalised Liverpool offside trap to catch Brentford offside with a 5/2 shot on offer.

How did we get on last time?
A profit of 4.5 was bagged, thanks to Bukayo Saka scoring first, therefore landing the 8/1 on offer from Sky Bet. There was misfortune in the other punts. Brentford landed half of the 6/1 double by hitting two shots on target before the break against West Ham but the bet fell short by two shots on target from Leicester as they only managed two at Liverpool despite playing with great adventure for large parts.

And, the 3/1 double on Willy Boly or Joe Worrall to have one or more shots vs Chelsea and Aston Villa to win or draw vs Tottenham somehow got beat. Despite Forest scoring from a set-piece and Chelsea looking vulnerable from those situations, it was Serge Aurier that found the way to goal having two shots. Boly assisted the goal with a header from close range but no shot for him or Worrall.

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There is a bit of a weird correlation between how many times Liverpool catch players offside and their results. It seems the healthier the average of opposition offsides, the better Liverpool’s results are.

There is logic to it as the higher the team press, which is affected by confidence, the more Jurgen Klopp’s side can pin a team in and create good quality chances. In the three seasons they amassed more than 91 points, they topped the charts for offsides against, averaging around 3.5 per match. That average dropped to 2.50 per match when they picked up just 69 points in the disappointing 2020/21 season and has dropped to just 1.9 per match this season as Klopp’s men sit way off the pace.

However, performances are picking up, to the extent they look capable of winning this one, and so are the offsides against figure. Leicester were caught offside five times as the Liverpool high line looked to be back to its aggressive nature and Villa were flagged three times on Boxing Day.

So, with the prices not yet readjusting to the improved Liverpool performances in the offsides against markets, it’s time to back Brentford to rack up the offsides. Bryan Mbeumo was caught offside twice in both meetings between the two teams last season and in the absence of Ivan Toney, the focus will be on him to see more of the play and dart in behind that Liverpool line. He is a whopping 5/4 with Sky Bet just to be caught offside once. Also, Brentford racked up 11 offsides in total across the two meetings last season as their direct style against Liverpool does result in plenty of offside scenarios.

They are 13/8 for three or more in this game, which looks a superb value play too. Combine the both and you get a 5/2 shot to attack. Back it.


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